DOM.RF stocks: a worthy idea for conservative investors

Ticker: DOMRF

Idea: Long

Horizon: 12 months

Target: 2,000 rubles.

Expected return: about 25-30% including dividends for 2025.

Recommended purchase price: 1700-1750 rubles.



At the moment, shares of DOM.RF (taking into account 25 billion rubles received in the company’s capital after the IPO) are traded on multiplier P/B at about 0.7x, and on P/E about 3.5x, which gives a discount to Sber at 15-20%. Judging by the fact that since the IPO quotes stand at about one mark about 1700-1750 rubles. , the market believes such an assessment is fair, which means that the future growth of quotes largely depends on the growth of financial indicators of the DOM itself.

We believe that in the medium term DOM.RF will increase its net profit by about 10-15% per year, which will be reflected in the growth of dividends on which the company spends half of the annual net profit. In our view, the company’s shares should grow by about the same amount.

As for the dividend forecast for 2025, we believe that the company will be able to earn 90 billion rubles. net profit for this year, which will give about 250 rubles. dividend per share and dividend yield of approximately 14% annually from the current levels at which shares are traded.

As a result, coupled with dividends and a small increase in paper (in a conservative version, without taking into account the possible revaluation of the entire market against the backdrop of reducing geopolitical tensions), DOM.RF paper is seen as a pretty good conservative idea for those who wants to dilute other conservative stocks like Sberbank, X5 Group or Transneft in their portfolio.

Risks

The key risk that we see in the history of DOM.RF is regulatory. Yet, it is still a «financial institute of development» on which the state can impose additional obligations to finance low-margin social projects, which will put pressure on the net interest rate and net profit of DOM.RF, However, we do not yet see the real preconditions for this.

In addition, the bank may have problems with capital adequacy due to its growth over the next few years, but for the next 1-2 years the bank’s capital needs will be met by earned profits and equity generated through the IPO. Now (as of 30.09.2025) the standard of adequacy of own funds is at 12.1%, which will certainly not prevent dividend payments for 2025.