Shares "Mosenergo": too expensive and risky

Tomorrow, the shareholders of Mosenergo must make a decision on the payment of dividends. Previously, the board of directors recommended to allocate 0.226 rubles per share for payment. In our view, there is no investment in future payouts for two reasons.

First, the previous recommendation was not approved by shareholders in summer 2025 due to lack of votes. There is a risk that this time the situation will repeat itself. That time, after the news broke, stocks fell by 2.4%

Second, the quotations of Mosenergo’s securities are now 13% higher than last summer, while the size of dividends has not changed since then.

At the current price of ~2.52 rubles, the potential dividend yield would be 8.9%, which is very small. By comparison, Sber’s dividend yield is close to 12%.

That is, at the moment there is a risk in Mosenergo’s shares that dividends will not be paid again, and if payment does happen, then the dividend yield will be markedly lower than Sber’s.

Against this background, it makes sense to consider the opening of short positions on Mosenergo, as well as OGK-2 (since both companies belong to Gazprom). In contrast to these securities, one can look at the shares of Inter RAO and Russian Grids, where investors' movements from the shares of GEE will take place.